Incline Village’s 5-Year Decline in Price Per Square Foot: Are there more short sales to come?

by Joe Salcedo on 8:17 am

By now it’s common knowledge of the market decline in most parts of Lake Tahoe. In this post I wanted to zoom in on a specific area in the Lake, perhaps the most famous of all communities in all of Tahoe: Incline Village. Let’s take a look…

Working with real estate investors the past 5 years, I’ve come to understand how vital Price Per Square Foot is in calculating risk when buying a home. Simple but a great starting point. You can come up with a home’s price per square foot by dividing the price of the home with its square footage. There have been glimpses of hope in the Lake Tahoe real estate market as units sold continue to go North–from Truckee to South Lake Tahoe. Demand seems to be improving.

By looking at these numbers you can grab a clear picture of how the prices of homes in Incline Village has evolved the last five years. And as the old adage goes, “whoever does not learn from history is bound to repeat it.”

Why is it important to see from investor’s eyes? In my opinion, they are for the most, part savvy home buyers that keep their ears on the ground. They also represent a big chunk of Lake Tahoe’s potential home buyers (many control vast cash reserves through family funds or trusts and even hedge funds) .

This (price per sq/ft) determines the viability of a house in the eyes of prospective investors and smart buyers therefore giving us a peek on future demand. And without a strong demand, we can only expect stronger currents of short sales around Lake Tahoe.

Are there going to be more short sales in Lake Tahoe ? Foreclosures? My guess is it’ll slowly increase but nothing too drastic. Well, that’s just my opinion. So without further ado, here’s a better measuring tape of the future:

Incline Village Median Price Per Square Foot (graph to follow):

2006

  • Jan: 436
  • Feb: 495
  • Mar: 465
  • Apr: 471
  • May: 506
  • Jun: 471
  • July: 489
  • Aug: 431
  • Sep: 454
  • Oct: 536
  • Nov: 472
  • Dec: 655

2007

  • Jan: 488
  • Feb: 482
  • Mar: 443
  • Apr: 500
  • May: 435
  • Jun: 464
  • July: 499
  • Aug: 528
  • Sep: 559
  • Oct: 404
  • Nov: 364
  • Dec: 486

2008

  • Jan: 522
  • Feb: 416
  • Mar: 394
  • Apr: 333
  • May: 390
  • Jun: 428
  • July: 402
  • Aug: 491
  • Sep: 568
  • Oct: 352
  • Nov: 205
  • Dec: 270

2009

  • Jan: 423
  • Feb: 450
  • Mar: 408
  • Apr: 494
  • May: 231
  • Jun: 309
  • July: 359
  • Aug: 399
  • Sep: 369
  • Oct: 332
  • Nov: 299
  • Dec: 305

2010

  • Jan: 337
  • Feb: 287
  • Mar: 294
  • Apr: 332
  • May: 266
  • Jun: 322
  • July: 345
  • Aug: 293
  • Sep: 170
  • Oct: 335
  • Nov: 247
  • Dec: n/a

Hope this helps you get a better picture on the Topsy Turvy Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market as you decide on what to do with your home–keep it, short sale, just let it foreclose?

Yes, the Lake Tahoe market is still struggling, but don’t get caught snoozing too long in this Bear market, things could change for the better, faster than 4pm… Hopefully soon.

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– Philip Duane Johncock


“I was laid off from the state in November of 2007 due to major budget cuts. We were no longer able to make our house payments as the job market was just beginning to get worse and worse. My agent in San Jose found Joe Salcedo in Reno for me and told me he has a lot of experience in short sales. He priced our home at a very realistic price in relation to the market values at the time. Joe was very professional and before we knew it we had an offer on our home. In September of 2008 our home closed and the bank forgave the difference. A short sale comes off of your credit in a much, much shorter time than a bank foreclosure. We will be forever grateful for the assistance of Joe Salcedo”

– James and Marsha McGinnis (feel free to call for a reference, Joe has my number)

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